How to Debunk an iPhone Rumor
Here at the cell phones blog, we’re consistently amazed at the vast amount of rumors that circulate about smartphones. And no phone is the subject of more speculation than the iPhone, a veritable Paul Bunyan of the smartphone world. These rumors usually start with a little bit of hearsay and then get echoed throughout the blogosphere and then trickle into everyday conversation (at the dinner table: “I heard Verizon’s getting the iPhone!”) and in some cases, even wiggles its way into the mainstream media.
There’s something incredibly sticky about iPhone rumors – perhaps it’s the anxiety that our 2-year cell phone contracts instill in us (”Verizon’s getting the iPhone? Augh! I just switched to AT&T!”) or the power of wishful thinking. But as well know by now, the vast majority of Apple rumors end up being hogwash. We are all in the dark until any of the official companies – AT&T, Verizon or Apple – make an official announcement.
But for those of us who simply can’t wait for the overlords to throw us a bone, or simply want to win an argument with a supposedly prescient friend, here are some tips that will help you identify a bunk rumor:
Start from the beginning
The Internet is a massive game of telephone. If you’re researching a rumor that hit the blogosphere 14 days ago, chances are the first thing that pops up in Google won’ tbe the original article. It’ll likely be a blog post citing another blog post which vaguely references the original news item. Do yourself a favor and find the original article where the rumor started. You might be surprised at how twisted words can get. A comment from a seasonal worker at the AT&T kiosk in the mall saying, “I’d expect Apple to look for another carrier next year” can be warped to “AT&T employees leak inside information that iPhone will be moving to Verizon in June 2010.”
Consider the Source
Watch out for the following dubious phrases:
- “People familiar with the situation indicate…”
- “…according to sources close to the matter.”
- “…unnamed sources from X company say…”
That could really mean anything. Also, check out this doozy from Ordoh:
According to GigaOm’s Colin Gibbs, Northeast Securities has issued a research note, based again on supply chain sources, that says Apple will launch a W-CDMA/CDMA2000-enabled iPhone through Verizon by the summer of 2010.
Okay, so here you have a writer for Ordoh, citing a writer for GigaOm, referencing research analysis from Northeast Securities which cites an unnamed source somewhere within the supply chain for Apple manufacturers. That could be some factory floor manager who makes the headphone jacks on the iPhone who heard a secondhand rumor from a company liason. So, here, you’re almost six-times removed from the original source.
Take analysis with a grain of salt
Speaking of considering the source, the Apple analyst for Northeast Securities (which is a financial services firm completely unrelated to Apple other than the fact that they invest in them) is Ashok Kumar, who, as iPhonAsia.com pointed out in October 2009, has been known to be utterly and completely wrong. Kumar had stated in his research notes that iPhone sales in China had been “disappointing” – however, the iPhone hadn’t even gone on sale yet in China when he made that comment.
Bottom-line: True, tech analysts have far more experience, more industry contacts and more discerning insight into upcoming sea changes (heck, it’s what they do for a living) but at the end of the day, they are just like you and me – blocked off from official, definitive information straight from the company and by no means infallible. Just take a look at the recent bust on subprime mortgages – there were a chorus of voices singing subprime’s praises as well as a few dissonant outsiders who did their best to spread the word that the emperor had no clothes. The latter group was right, but truth didn’t out until the economy tanked.
Think of it from a business standpoint
Noam Chomsky said that if you want to know what’s really going on in the world, read the business section. Businesspeople and investors have no tolerance for BS and anything you read in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal or BusinessWeek are likely to be more to the point than anything from the consumer rag rumor mills. It’s also important to consider how the respective players in the business move stand to gain. If there’s no logical way they can make money from the deal, then the rumors are probably bunk. Wired Magazine highlights a more specific flaw to the rumors of Verizon getting an iPhone by pointing out that iTunes and V Cast wouldn’t play well together (Verizon would end up competing with itself for media downloads and streaming music).
Watch out for other technological shifts
Everyone’s talking about 4G and that’s going to make a big difference when the iPhone starts entertaining suitors. Consider this: Verizon currently runs on CDMA and is working on implementing an LTE 4g network. For now, the iPhone is strictly a GSM phone and wouldn’t work on Verizon. Apple would have to develop a chip (or a whole new handset) to allow the iPhone to work with Verizon’s network. Meanwhile, Sprint/Nextel has its WiMax 4G network up and running right now while T-Mobile already handles GSM phones. These two factors make both these networks more attractive than Verizon from an adaptability standpoint.
So, when fielding rumors, be sure to consider whether it’s technologically viable before accepting it as gospel truth.
These quick checks for rumor credibility won’t definitively identify a rumor as truth or fiction. After all, if we’ve learned anything from following the tech industry, it’s that we should expect the unexpected. But these tips should help you weed out the especially dubious speculations and help you temper your expectations and keep your emotions in check.
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- Apple Deleting All Mentions of the Consumer Reports iPhone 4 Piece on Forums
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December 29th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Forget the rumors and look at inevitability:
- ATT’s network cannot handle all the iPhone traffic. In fact, many markets (NYC) are constantly suspending new iPhone sales due to this. ATT has talked about upgrading to HSPA+, but like building new freeway lanes, by the time they do this it won’t help much.
- LTE is the only way to deal with the massive bandwidth appetites of iPhones, NetBooks, etc. and ATT will be late to the LTE party.
- Yes, VZ is currently CDMA, but that is precisely why they will be first to deploy LTE (late 2010). Their blue “coverage map” will also turn into “fat pipes”.
- This is not a rumor, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to assume that Apple is already working on an LTE iPhone and by the time that’s ready, VZ will have deployed LTE (in major markets where ATT is crawling).
- If/when this happens, those who have shorted ATT’s stock will be handsomely rewarded! When I read the “rumor articles”, I pay more attention to the comments, which speak clearly and loudly that ATT will lose many, many (iPhone) customers if/when the above scenario occurs.